Objectives: Target populations with persistent polypharmacy should be identified prior to implementing strategies against inappropriate medication use, yet limited information regarding such populations is available. The main objectives were to explore the trends of excessive polypharmacy, whether transient or persistent, at the individual level. The secondary objectives were to identify the factors associated with persistently excessive polypharmacy and to estimate the probabilities for repeatedly excessive polypharmacy. Methods: Retrospective cohort analyses of excessive polypharmacy, defined as prescription of ≥ 10 medicines at an ambulatory visit, from 2001 to 2013 were conducted using a nationally representative claims database in Taiwan. Survival analyses with log-rank test of adult patients with first-time excessive polypharmacy were conducted to predict the probabilities, stratified by age and sex, of having repeatedly excessive polypharmacy. Results: During the study period, excessive polypharmacy occurred in 5.4% of patients for the first time. Among them, 63.9% had repeatedly excessive polypharmacy and the probabilities were higher in men and old people. Men versus women, and old versus middle-aged and young people had shorter median excessive polypharmacy-free times (9.4 vs. 5.5 months, 5.3 vs. 10.1 and 35.0 months, both p < 0.001). Overall, the probabilities of having no repeatedly excessive polypharmacy within 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year were 59.9, 53.6, and 48.1%, respectively. Conclusion: Although male and old patients were more likely to have persistently excessive polypharmacy, most cases of excessive polypharmacy were transient or did not re-appear in the short run. Systemic deprescribing measures should be tailored to at-risk groups.
Keywords: drug prescriptions; drug utilization; medication management; national health programs; polypharmacy.