Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland

Connie O'Driscoll; José L J Ledesma; John Coll; John G Murnane; Paul Nolan; Eva M Mockler; Martyn N Futter; Liwen W Xiao

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.248

Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland

Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jul 15:630:869-877. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.248. Epub 2018 Mar 7.

Authors

Connie O'Driscoll¹, José L J Ledesma², John Coll³, John G Murnane⁴, Paul Nolan⁵, Eva M Mockler⁶, Martyn N Futter⁷, Liwen W Xiao⁸

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, TCD, Dublin, Ireland; Department of Civil Engineering, NUIG, Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: odriscco@tcd.ie.
² Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, SLU, Uppsala, Sweden. Electronic address: jose.ledesma@slu.se.
³ Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth, Maynooth, Co Kildare, Ireland.
⁴ Department of Civil Engineering, NUIG, Galway, Ireland; School of Engineering, University of Limerick, Ireland.
⁵ Irish Centre for High End Computing (ICHEC), Research and Applications Division, Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland.
⁶ UCD School of Civil Engineering, UCD, Dublin, Ireland.
⁷ Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, SLU, Uppsala, Sweden.
⁸ Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, TCD, Dublin, Ireland. Electronic address: liwen.xiao@tcd.ie.

PMID: 29499542
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.248

Abstract

Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants.

Keywords: Carbon cycle; Climate change; INCA-C; Ireland; Natural organic matter; Surface water.