Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin

Tran Van Tra; Nguyen Xuan Thinh; Stefan Greiving

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.250

Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin

Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jul 15:630:718-727. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.250. Epub 2018 Feb 27.

Authors

Tran Van Tra¹, Nguyen Xuan Thinh², Stefan Greiving²

Affiliations

¹ Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, Viet Nam; Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Germany. Electronic address: tvtra@monre.gov.vn.
² Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Germany.

PMID: 29494979
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.250

Abstract

Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes.

Keywords: Combined top-down and bottom-up; MIKE BASIN; Water shortage.