Long-term trends and health impact of PM2.5 and O3 in Tehran, Iran, 2006-2015

Abstract

The main objectives of this study were (1) investigation of the temporal variations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ground level ozone (O₃) concentrations in Tehran megacity, the capital and most populous city in Iran, over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015, and (2) estimation of their long-term health effects including all-cause and cause-specific mortality. For the first goal, the data of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations, measured at 21 regulatory monitoring network stations in Tehran, were obtained and the temporal trends were investigated. The health impact assessment of PM_2.5 and O₃ was performed using the World Health Organization (WHO) AirQ+ software updated in 2016 by WHO European Centre for Environment and Health. Local baseline incidences in Tehran level were used to better reveal the health effects associated with PM_2.5 and O₃. Our study showed that over 2006-2015, annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ varied from 24.7 to 38.8 μg m^-3 and 35.4 to 76.0 μg m^-3, respectively, and were significantly declining in the recent 6 years (2010-2015) for PM_2.5 and 8 years (2008-2015) for O₃. However, Tehran citizens were exposed to concentrations of annual PM_2.5 exceeding the WHO air quality guideline (WHO AQG) (10 μg m^-3), U.S. EPA and Iranian standard levels (12 μg m^-3) during entire study period. We estimated that long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 contributed to between 24.5% and 36.2% of mortality from cerebrovascular disease (stroke), 19.8% and 24.1% from ischemic heart disease (IHD), 13.6% and 19.2% from lung cancer (LC), 10.7% and 15.3% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 15.0% and 25.2% from acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), and 7.6% and 11.3% from all-cause annual mortality in the time period. We further estimated that deaths from IHD accounted for most of mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM_2.5. The years of life lost (YLL) attributable to PM_2.5 was estimated to vary from 67,970 to 106,706 during the study period. In addition, long-term exposure to O₃ was estimated to be responsible for 0.9% to 2.3% of mortality from respiratory diseases. Overall, long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and O₃ contributed substantially to mortality in Tehran megacity. Air pollution is a modifiable risk factor. Appropriate sustainable control policies are recommended to protect public health.

Keywords: Health burden; O(3); PM(2.5); Tehran; Temporal variability.