Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013-2017

Hao Zhang; Haiou Yuan; Xiaohui Liu; Junyi Yu; Yongli Jiao

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.248

Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM_2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013-2017

Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jun 15:627:200-210. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.248. Epub 2018 Feb 3.

Authors

Hao Zhang¹, Haiou Yuan², Xiaohui Liu³, Junyi Yu², Yongli Jiao⁴

Affiliations

¹ School of chemistry and chemical engineering, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China. Electronic address: haozhang@swu.edu.cn.
² School of chemistry and chemical engineering, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China.
³ College of atmospheric physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China.
⁴ Department of Teaching and Research, China Executive Leadership Academy Pudong (CELAP), Shanghai 201204, China. Electronic address: yljiao@celap.org.cn.

PMID: 29426142
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.248

Abstract

North China Plain area (NCP) is one of the most densely populated and heavily polluted regions in the world. In the last five years, frequently happened fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) serious pollution events were one of the top environmental concerns in China. As PM_2.5 concentrations are highly influenced by synoptic flow patterns and local meteorological conditions, a two-stage hierarchical clustering method based on dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and standard k-means clustering algorithm was employed to classify synoptic wind fields into 6 patterns over the NCP area using the data of 5 PM_2.5 seasons (Sept. 15th-Apr. 15th) from 2013 to 2017. Among the six identified synoptic patterns, pattern of uniform pressure field (U) and that of zonal high pressure (Z_H) accounted for 78.21%, 65.55%, 63.56%, 57.11%, 59.13% and 58.27% studied heavy smog pollution events in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai city. The two particular patterns were associated with uniform pressure field and sparsely latitudinal isobar in 850 hPa level, respectively. They were also characterized by high relative humidity, low temperature, low-speed northerly wind in Tianjin and Tangshan, and southerly wind in the other cities. Under the continuous control of pattern Z_H, the values of 24 h-average PM_2.5 were found to increase at a rate of 31.78 μg/m³ per day. To evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors and precursors to PM_2.5 levels, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) were applied to establish relations among 24 h-average PM_2.5 concentrations, concentrations of main precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic patterns. Results show that the variations of precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic flow patterns can explain 51.67%, 19.15% and 14.01% changes of the 24 h-average PM_2.5 concentrations, respectively. This study illustrates that dense precursor emissions are still the main cause for heavy haze pollution events, although meteorological conditions play almost equal roles sometimes.

Keywords: Cluster analysis; Linear mixed-effects models; North China Plain; PM(2.5) concentrations; Synoptic weather patterns.