Long-term evaluation of water quality parameters of the Karoun River using a regression approach and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

Abstract

This paper investigates chemical water quality parameters of the Karoun, the greatest and the most important river of Iran, during a 48-year period, from 1968 to 2015. Water discharge (Q) fluctuates between 191.1m³s^-1 and 1758.7m³s^-1, with a decreasing trend over the 48-year period. Except pH, other water quality parameters increased, significantly, so that the rate of increase for EC and TDS was 25.71μScm^-1y^-1 and 16.66mgl^-1y^-1, respectively. Moreover, SO₄^-2, HCO₃^-, Cl^-, Ca⁺², Mg⁺² and Na⁺ have increased by 0.116, 0.012, 0.151, 0.066, 0.052 and 0.168meql^-1y^-1, respectively. Result indicated that water discharge can be a satisfactory predictor of chemical water quality parameters in this river. It was finally concluded when water discharge of the river decreases to less than ~500m³s^-1, the vales of water salinity (EC and TDS) and soluble salts will increase, severely.

Keywords: ANFIS; Chemical water quality; The Karoun River; Trend analysis.