A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network

PLoS One. 2018 Feb 8;13(2):e0192366. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192366. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Empirical Research
  • Forecasting
  • Fuzzy Logic*
  • Investments / trends*
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Taiwan

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 71471076 to Aiwu Zhao; The Fund of the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Sciences 14YJAZH025 to Dr. Hongjun Guan; The Fund of the China Nation Tourism Administration 15TACK003 to Dr. Hongjun Guan; The Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province ZR2013GM003 to Dr. Hongjun Guan and the Foundation Program of Jiangsu University 16JDG005 to Aiwu Zhao. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.