Epidemic spreading in modular time-varying networks

Sci Rep. 2018 Feb 5;8(1):2352. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-20908-x.

Abstract

We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we study the epidemic size of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, SIR, models and the epidemic threshold of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible, SIS, models. Interestingly, we find that while the presence of tightly connected clusters inhibits SIR processes, it speeds up SIS phenomena. In this case, we observe that modular structures induce a reduction of the threshold with respect to time-varying networks without communities. We confirm the theoretical results by means of extensive numerical simulations both on synthetic graphs as well as on a real modular and temporal network.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Susceptibility*
  • Epidemics*
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted