Background: There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD.
Methods: We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD): the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters) and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification)). They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR) of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).
Results: During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90) and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83). Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%).
Conclusions: We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score were not as good as reported, and combining the D-score with the KFRE did not significantly improve prediction of the risk of ESRD in advanced diabetic nephropathy. To improve prediction of renal prognosis for advanced diabetic nephropathy may require different approaches with combining clinical and pathological parameters that were not measured in the KFRE and the RPS DN Classification.