Understanding Ebola virus (EBOV) virulence evolution not only is timely but also raises specific questions because it causes one of the most virulent human infections and it is capable of transmission after the death of its host. Using a compartmental epidemiological model that captures three transmission routes (by regular contact, via dead bodies and by sexual contact), we infer the evolutionary dynamics of case fatality ratio on the scale of an outbreak and in the long term. Our major finding is that the virus's specific life cycle imposes selection for high levels of virulence and that this pattern is robust to parameter variations in biological ranges. In addition to shedding a new light on the ultimate causes of EBOV's high virulence, these results generate testable predictions and contribute to informing public health policies. In particular, burial management stands out as the most appropriate intervention since it decreases the R0 of the epidemics, while imposing selection for less virulent strains.
Keywords: Ebola virus; adaptation; case fatality ratio; evolutionary epidemiology; outbreak; public health; trade-offs; transmission; virulence.
© 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.