Major earthquakes cause widespread environmental and socioeconomic disruptions that persist for decades. Extensive ground disturbances that occurred during the shallow-focus Kumamoto earthquakes will affect future sustainability of ecosystem services west of Aso volcano. Numbers of earthquake-initiated landslides per unit area were higher in grasslands than forests, likely owing to greater root reinforcement of trees, and mostly initiated on ridgelines and/or convex/planar hillslopes. Most landslides traveled short distances and did not initially evolve into debris flows; resultant sediments and wood accumulating in headwater channels can be mobilized into debris flows during future storms. Fissures along ridgelines may promote water ingress and induce future landslides and debris flows that affect residents downstream. Native grasses are at risk because of habitat fragmentation caused by ground disturbances, extensive damage to rural roads, and abandonment of traditional pasture management practices. Sustainable management of affected areas needs to consider future risk of cascading hazards and long-term socioeconomic impacts.
Keywords: Cascading disasters; Ecosystem resetting; Landslides; Natural hazards; Semi-natural grasslands; Tipping points.