A dynamic viticultural zoning to explore the resilience of terroir concept under climate change

A Bonfante; E Monaco; G Langella; P Mercogliano; E Bucchignani; P Manna; F Terribile

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.035

A dynamic viticultural zoning to explore the resilience of terroir concept under climate change

Sci Total Environ. 2018 May 15:624:294-308. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.035. Epub 2017 Dec 16.

Authors

A Bonfante¹, E Monaco², G Langella², P Mercogliano³, E Bucchignani³, P Manna², F Terribile⁴

Affiliations

¹ National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Institute for Mediterranean Agricultural and Forestry Systems (ISAFOM), Ercolano, (NA), Italy. Electronic address: antonello.bonfante@cnr.it.
² National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Institute for Mediterranean Agricultural and Forestry Systems (ISAFOM), Ercolano, (NA), Italy.
³ Meteorology Laboratory, Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA), Capua, (CE), Italy; Regional Models and Geo-Hydrogeological Impacts Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Capua, (CE), Italy.
⁴ University of Naples Federico II, Department of Agriculture, Portici, (NA), Italy; University of Naples Federico II, CRISP Interdepartmental Centre, Portici (NA), Italy.

PMID: 29253777
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.035

Abstract

Climate change (CC) directly influences agricultural sectors, presenting the need to identify both adaptation and mitigation actions that can make local farming communities and crop production more resilient. In this context, the viticultural sector is one of those most challenged by CC due to the need to combine grape quality, grapevine cultivar adaptation and therefore farmers' future incomes. Thus, understanding how suitability for viticulture is changing under CC is of primary interest in the development of adaptation strategies in traditional wine-growing regions. Considering that climate is an essential part of the terroir system, the expected variability in climate change could have a marked influence on terroir resilience with important effects on local farming communities in viticultural regions. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define a new dynamic viticultural zoning procedure that is able to integrate the effects of CC on grape quality responses and evaluate terroir resilience, providing a support tool for stakeholders involved in viticultural planning (winegrowers, winegrower consortiums, policy makers etc.). To achieve these aims, a Hybrid Land Evaluation System, combining qualitative (standard Land Evaluation) and quantitative (simulation model) approaches, was applied within a traditional region devoted to high quality wine production in Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN), for a specific grapevine cultivar (Aglianico). The work employed high resolution climate projections that were derived under two different IPCC scenarios, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results obtained indicate that: (i) only 2% of the suitable area of Valle Telesina expresses the concept of terroir resilience orientated towards Aglianico ultra quality grape production; (ii) within 2010-2040, it is expected that 41% of the area suitable for Aglianico cultivation will need irrigation to achieve quality grape production; (iii) by 2100, climate change benefits for the cultivation of Aglianico will decrease, as well as the suitable areas.

Keywords: Climate change; Dynamic Viticultural zoning; Grapes quality; SWAP.