A 2018 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

William J Sutherland; Stuart H M Butchart; Ben Connor; Caroline Culshaw; Lynn V Dicks; Jason Dinsdale; Helen Doran; Abigail C Entwistle; Erica Fleishman; David W Gibbons; Zhigang Jiang; Brandon Keim; Xavier Le Roux; Fiona A Lickorish; Paul Markillie; Kathryn A Monk; Diana Mortimer; James W Pearce-Higgins; Lloyd S Peck; Jules Pretty; Colleen L Seymour; Mark D Spalding; Femke H Tonneijck; Rosalind A Gleave

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2017.11.006

A 2018 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

Trends Ecol Evol. 2018 Jan;33(1):47-58. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2017.11.006. Epub 2017 Dec 4.

Authors

William J Sutherland¹, Stuart H M Butchart², Ben Connor³, Caroline Culshaw⁴, Lynn V Dicks⁵, Jason Dinsdale⁶, Helen Doran⁷, Abigail C Entwistle⁸, Erica Fleishman⁹, David W Gibbons¹⁰, Zhigang Jiang¹¹, Brandon Keim¹², Xavier Le Roux¹³, Fiona A Lickorish¹⁴, Paul Markillie¹⁵, Kathryn A Monk¹⁶, Diana Mortimer¹⁷, James W Pearce-Higgins¹⁸, Lloyd S Peck¹⁹, Jules Pretty²⁰, Colleen L Seymour²¹, Mark D Spalding²², Femke H Tonneijck²³, Rosalind A Gleave²⁴

Affiliations

¹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK. Electronic address: w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk.
² Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK; BirdLife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK.
³ British Ecological Society, Charles Darwin House, 12 Roger Street, London, WC1N 2JL, UK.
⁴ Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1EU, UK.
⁵ School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
⁶ Environment Agency, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol, BS1 5AH, UK.
⁷ Natural England, Eastbrook, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge, CB2 8DR, UK.
⁸ Fauna & Flora International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK.
⁹ Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
¹⁰ RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2DL, UK.
¹¹ Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
¹² 721 Ohio Street, Bangor, ME 04401, USA.
¹³ Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité, 195 rue Saint Jacques, 75005 Paris, France; Microbial Ecology Centre, INRA, CNRS, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, 43 Boulevard du 11 Novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne, France.
¹⁴ Cranfield Institute for Resilient Futures, Cranfield University, Cranfield, MK43 0AL, UK.
¹⁵ The Economist, 25 St James's Street, London, SW1A 1HG, UK.
¹⁶ Natural Resources Wales, Cambria House, 29 Newport Road, Cardiff, CF24 0TP, UK.
¹⁷ Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Monkstone House, City Road, Peterborough, PE1 1UA, UK.
¹⁸ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK; British Trust For Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, IP24 2PU, UK.
¹⁹ British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK.
²⁰ School of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK.
²¹ South African National Biodiversity Institute, Private Bag X7, Claremont, 7735, South Africa; Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.
²² Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK; Global Marine Team, The Nature Conservancy, Department of Physical, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Pian dei Mantellini, Siena 53100, Italy.
²³ Wetlands International, PO Box 471, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands.
²⁴ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK.

PMID: 29217396
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2017.11.006

Abstract

This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities.

Keywords: biotechnology; climate change; emerging disease; environment; futures; novel issues; predictions.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Biodiversity*
Conservation of Natural Resources*
Ecosystem*