For species at risk of decline or extinction in source-sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site- or habitat-specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source-sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high-output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source-sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data-rich source-sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short-term regional persistence. Because source-sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.
Keywords: Black-capped Vireo; Greater Sage-Grouse; Ord's kangaroo rat; abundance; abundancia; canguro-ratón; conservación; conservation; declining population; dinámicas de fuente - sumidero; habitat prioritization; individual-based model; medidas de fuente - sumidero; población declinante; priorización de hábitat; source-sink dynamics; source-sink metrics; urogallo de las artemisas; vireo gorrinegro; 源～汇动态, 栖息地保护优先性, 基于个体的模型, 丰度, 源～汇参数, 保护, 下降种群, 美洲跳鼠, 艾草松鸡, 黑顶莺雀.
© 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.