Predicting Pediatric Patients Who Require Care at a Trauma Center: Analysis of Injuries and Other Factors

Abstract

Background: Triage decision correctness for children in motor vehicle crashes can be affected by occult injuries. There is a need to develop a transfer score (TS) metric for children that can help quantify the likelihood that an injury is present that would require transfer to a trauma center (TC) from a non-TC, and improve triage decision making. Ultimately, the TS metric might be useful in an advanced automatic crash notification algorithm, which uses vehicle telemetry data to predict the risk of serious injury after a motor vehicle crash using an approach that includes metrics to describe injury severity, time sensitivity, and predictability.

Study design: Transfer score metrics were calculated in 4 pediatric age groups (0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14, 15 to 18 years) for the most frequent motor vehicle crash injuries using the proportions of children transferred to a TC or managed at a non-TC using the National Inpatient Sample years 1998 to 2007. To account for the maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) injury, a co-injury adjusted transfer score (TS_MAIS) was calculated. The TS and TS_MAIS range from 0 to 1, with 1 indicating highly transferred injuries.

Results: Injuries in younger patients were more likely to be transferred (median TS 0.48, 0.35, 0.25, and 0.23 for 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14, and 15 to 18 years, respectively). Injuries more likely to be transferred in younger children occurred in the thorax and abdomen. Regardless of age, spine (median TS_MAIS 0.59), head (median TS_MAIS 0.48), and thorax (median TS_MAIS 0.46) injuries had the highest frequency for transfer.

Conclusions: The TS metrics quantitatively describe age-specific transfer practices for children with particular injuries. This information can be useful in advanced automatic crash notification systems to alert first responders to the possibility of occult injuries and reduce undertriage of commonly missed injuries.