Backward bifurcation and oscillations in a nested immuno-eco-epidemiological model

J Biol Dyn. 2018 Dec;12(1):51-88. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2017.1401676.

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel partial differential equation immuno-eco-epidemiological model of competition in which one species is affected by a disease while another can compete with it directly and by lowering the first species' immune response to the infection, a mode of competition termed stress-induced competition. When the disease is chronic, and the within-host dynamics are rapid, we reduce the partial differential equation model (PDE) to a three-dimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) model. The ODE model exhibits backward bifurcation and sustained oscillations caused by the stress-induced competition. Furthermore, the ODE model, although not a special case of the PDE model, is useful for detecting backward bifurcation and oscillations in the PDE model. Backward bifurcation related to stress-induced competition allows the second species to persist for values of its invasion number below one. Furthermore, stress-induced competition leads to destabilization of the coexistence equilibrium and sustained oscillations in the PDE model. We suggest that complex systems such as this one may be studied by appropriately designed simple ODE models.

Keywords: 92D30; Backward bifurcation; immuno-eco-epi model; infectious disease ecology; multi-scale models; oscillations; stress-induced competition.

MeSH terms

  • Chronic Disease
  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases / immunology
  • Ecosystem*
  • Epidemics*
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Models, Immunological*