We compared new Medicaid enrollees with similar ongoing enrollees for evidence of pent-up demand using claims data following Minnesota's 2014 Medicaid expansion. We hypothesized that if new enrollees had pent-up demand, utilization would decline over time as testing and disease management plans are put in place. Consistent with pent-up demand among new enrollees, the probability of an office visit, a new patient office visit, and an emergency department visit declines over time for new enrollees relative to ongoing Medicaid enrollees. The pattern of utilization suggests that the newly insured are connecting with primary care after the 2014 Medicaid expansion and, unlike ongoing Medicaid enrollees; the newly insured have a declining reliance on the emergency department over time.
Keywords: Medicaid; health care utilization; health reform; pent-up demand.