A survival prediction logistic regression models for blunt trauma victims in Japan

Takaaki Suzuki; Akio Kimura; Ryo Sasaki; Tatsuki Uemura

doi:10.1002/ams2.228

A survival prediction logistic regression models for blunt trauma victims in Japan

Acute Med Surg. 2016 Jul 19;4(1):52-56. doi: 10.1002/ams2.228. eCollection 2017 Jan.

Authors

Takaaki Suzuki¹, Akio Kimura¹, Ryo Sasaki¹, Tatsuki Uemura¹

Affiliation

¹ Department of Emergency Medicine & Critical Care Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine Tokyo Japan.

Abstract

Aim: This research aimed to propose a logistic regression model for Japanese blunt trauma victims.

Methods: We tested whether the logistic regression model previously created from data registered in the Japan Trauma Data Bank between 2005 and 2008 is still valid for the data from the same data bank between 2009 and 2013. Additionally, we analyzed whether the model would be highly accurate even when its coefficients were rounded off to two decimal places.

Results: The model was proved to be highly accurate (94.56%) in the recent data (2009-2013). We also showed that the model remains valid without respiratory rate data and the simplified model would maintain high accuracy.

Conclusion: We propose the equation of survival prediction of blunt trauma victims in Japan to be Ps = 1/(1+e^-b), where b = -0.76 + 1.03 × Revised Trauma Score - 0.07 × Injury Severity Score - 0.04 × age.

Keywords: Japan Trauma Data Bank (JTDB); Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS); probability of survival (Ps); quality of trauma care; survival prediction.