Vitamin D supplementation as a potential cause of U-shaped associations between vitamin D levels and negative health outcomes: a decision tree analysis for risk of frailty

BMC Geriatr. 2017 Oct 16;17(1):236. doi: 10.1186/s12877-017-0631-0.

Abstract

Background: A recent controversy in vitamin D research is a "U-shaped association", with elevated disease risks at both high and low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25 (OH) D) levels.

Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of 238 male nursing home veterans in Hawaii. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis identified groups based on 25 (OH) D and vitamin D supplementation for frailty risk. Characteristics were examined and compared across the groups using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses.

Results: CART analysis identified three distinct groups: vitamin D supplement users (n = 86), non-users with low vitamin D (n = 55), and non-users with high vitamin D (n = 97). Supplement users were the most frail, but had high mean 25 (OH) D of 26.6 ng/mL, which was compatible with 27.1 ng/mL in non-users with high vitamin D, while mean 25 (OH) D of non-users with low vitamin D was 11.7 ng/mL. Supplement users and non-users with low vitamin D were significantly more likely to be frail (odds ratio (OR) = 9.90, 95% CI = 2.18-44.86, p = 0.003; OR = 4.28, 95% CI = 1.44-12.68, p = 0.009, respectively), compared with non-users with low vitamin D. ROC curve analysis showed the three groups significantly predicted frailty (area under the curve = 0.73), with sensitivity of 64.4% and specificity of 76.7%, while 25 (OH) D did not predict frailty.

Conclusions: In these nursing home veterans, vitamin D supplement users were the most frail but with high 25 (OH) D. This can potentially be a cause of U-shaped associations between vitamin D levels and negative health outcomes.

Keywords: Frailty; Nursing home; Vitamin D; Vitamin D deficiency; Vitamin D supplementation.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Decision Trees*
  • Dietary Supplements / adverse effects
  • Frail Elderly
  • Frailty / blood*
  • Homes for the Aged
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nursing Homes
  • Regression Analysis
  • Veterans
  • Veterans Health
  • Vitamin D / administration & dosage
  • Vitamin D / adverse effects
  • Vitamin D / analogs & derivatives*
  • Vitamin D / blood

Substances

  • Vitamin D
  • 25-hydroxyvitamin D