Background: Improved understanding of double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) virus kinetics after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) would facilitate development of therapeutic strategies.
Methods: We tested weekly plasma samples from 404 patients through day 100 after allogeneic HCT for cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpesvirus (HHV) 6A and 6B, BK polyomavirus (BKV), adenovirus (AdV), and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Episodes lasting ≤1 week were defined as blips and >1 week as persistent. We described virus-specific kinetics, analyzed the association of virus area under the curve (AUC) with overall mortality, and identified risk factors for persistent episodes.
Results: We identified 428 episodes of CMV, 292 of BKV, 224 of HHV-6B, 46 of AdV, and 53 of EBV. CMV and BKV had the highest proportions of persistent episodes (68% and 80%, respectively). Detection and kinetics varied by virus. HHV-6B episodes reached maximum levels fastest and had the shortest intervals between detection and end-organ disease. End-organ disease occurred within 14 days of viremia in 68% of cases, generally during persistent episodes. For all viruses, higher viral load AUC increased risk for overall mortality through day 365, persistent episodes had higher viral load than blips, and higher first positive viral load significantly increased risk for persistent episodes. First viral load >2 log10 copies/mL (range, 2.04-3.06 per virus) had high specificity for persistent episodes.
Conclusions: Persistent high viral load dsDNA viremia episodes after allogeneic HCT predict mortality. Virus-specific kinetics can guide timing and thresholds for early intervention in studies of novel agents.
Keywords: kinetics; mortality; threshold; transplant; virus.
© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.