Something from nothing: Estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies

PLoS One. 2017 Oct 11;12(10):e0185538. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185538. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which c.40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.

MeSH terms

  • Automobile Driving
  • Carbon Dioxide / analysis*
  • Economics*
  • Family Characteristics
  • Gasoline / analysis
  • Propensity Score*
  • Regression Analysis
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Travel
  • United Kingdom
  • Vehicle Emissions / analysis*

Substances

  • Gasoline
  • Vehicle Emissions
  • Carbon Dioxide

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the ESRC, grant RES-000-22-4083 to MB.