Background The long-term consequences of paediatric headache can involve functional disabilities and mental health problems in adulthood. Objective To analyse the predictive power of paediatric headache trajectory classes for headache and related outcomes in adulthood. Methods In a previous study, a population-based sample (N = 3227, 9-14 years of age at first assessment) was followed across four annual assessment points, and sex-specific headache trajectory classes were identified (girls: "no pain", "moderate pain", "increasing pain", "high pain"; boys: "no pain", "moderate pain"). These trajectory classes were used to predict headache frequency, functional disability, depression, quality of life and self-efficacy nine years later (N = 994). Negative binomial regression analyses and pairwise comparisons were computed. Results Women showing an elevated trajectory ("increasing pain" or "high pain") had a higher adult headache frequency and a poorer outcome on associated variables (functional disability, depression, quality of life, and self-efficacy) than women having a lower-level trajectory. Men of the "no pain" and "moderate pain" trajectory classes differed significantly from one another in their headache frequency and related variables. Conclusion Belonging to an elevated paediatric headache trajectory class involves a considerable risk for headache and headache-related problems in adulthood.
Keywords: Paediatric headache; adult outcome; developmental trajectories; longitudinal studies; sex differences.