This study determined the flare status of SLE patients in a single-center Chinese cohort and identified the predictors of flare in this underreported Asian population. The patients were recruited from April 2009 to February 2010 at the Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH), and then followed up regularly at our clinic until December 2015. Flare was defined as an increase in SLEDAI-2K to ≥ 4 points from the previous visit, or appearing of a new SLE manifestation or worsening of a preexisting clinical or hematological manifestation (not included in SLEDAI-2K) that results in restarting or increasing corticosteroids or immunosuppressant. Baseline and follow-up data were collected, and some of them were used as variables in survival analysis for time-to-flare outcome with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests. Potential predictors with significant differences were further included in a multivariate Cox regression model for confounders adjustment and hazard ratio (HR) calculation. A total of 254 patients were finally included in our analysis. Yearly flare proportion rate was 13.0-15.7%. Renal, hematologic, and neurologic were the most frequently involved organs. Multivariate analysis confirmed onset age up to 18 years (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.09-4.19) as a flare predictor. Organ damage at entry also showed an association trend with flare (HR = 1.693, 95% CI 0.943 ~ 3.041, p = 0.078). Chinese SLE patients showed a higher prevalence for disease flare compared with other ethnics. Future studies should be designed for figuring out the prediction role of fluctuation of anti-dsDNA antibody for disease flare.
Keywords: Disease activity; Flare; Risk factors; Systemic lupus erythematosus.