Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a major group of toxic pollutants in urban areas. We calculated the critical concentrations of PAHs in the urban soils of Nanjing, China based on a human health risk assessment. In the study area, the risk was divided into four levels and toxic equivalent values of benzo[a]pyrene (BaPeq) corresponded to <70ngg-1, 70-700ngg-1, 700-7000ngg-1, and >7000ngg-1. By this standard, most urban areas in Nanjing fall under level II (potentially low risk), while older urban districts, commercial centers, and transportation centers exceed the critical concentration (level III) at present. Additionally, the correlations between PAH concentrations, factors associated with urbanization, and soil properties were analyzed. Population density and black carbon content were determined to be the key factors involved. Multiple linear regression models and the scenario simulation method were used to predict PAH levels in urban soils through 2030. The results indicated that the future distribution characteristics of soil BaPeq under various scenarios were different than at present, but PAH concentrations remained stable only under the low‑carbon scenario. Therefore, the consumption of traditional fossil fuels should be controlled and replaced with alternative energy sources. In addition, the growth of traffic land use should be controlled in the southern and southwestern parts of the urban area.
Keywords: Human health risk; Multiple linear regression; PAH; Prediction; Urban soil.
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