Development and validation of optimal cut-off value in inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference for prediction of cardiovascular events

Abstract

Background: An inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference (IAD) is associated with cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to develop and validate the optimal cut-off value of IAD as a predictor of major adverse cardiac events in patients with arteriosclerosis risk factors.

Methods: From 2009 to 2014, 1076 patients who had at least one cardiovascular risk factor were included in the analysis. We defined 700 randomly selected patients as a development cohort to confirm that IAD was the predictor of cardiovascular events and to determine optimal cut-off value of IAD. Next, we validated outcomes in the remaining 376 patients as a validation cohort. The blood pressure (BP) of both arms measurements were done simultaneously using the ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI) form of automatic device. The primary endpoint was the cardiovascular event and secondary endpoint was the all-cause mortality.

Results: During a median period of 2.8 years, 143 patients reached the primary endpoint in the development cohort. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, IAD was the strong predictor of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio: 1.03, 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.05, p=0.005). The receiver operating characteristic curve revealed that 5mmHg was the optimal cut-off point of IAD to predict cardiovascular events (p<0.001). In the validation cohort, the presence of a large IAD (IAD ≥5mmHg) was significantly associated with the primary endpoint (p=0.021).

Conclusions: IAD is significantly associated with future cardiovascular events in patients with arteriosclerosis risk factors. The optimal cut-off value of IAD is 5mmHg.

Keywords: Cardiovascular risk; Inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference; Optimal cut-off value.