We investigated possibility of predicting whether blooms, if they occur, would be formed of microcystin-producing cyanobacteria. DGGE analysis of 16S-ITS and mcyA genes revealed that only Planktothrix and Microcystis possessed mcy-genes and Planktothrix was the main microcystin producer. qPCR analysis revealed that the proportion of cells with mcy-genes in Planktothrix populations was almost 100%. Microcystin concentration correlated with the number of potentially toxic and total Planktothrix cells and the proportion of Planktothrix within all cyanobacteria, but not with the proportion of cells with mcy-genes in total Planktothrix. The share of Microcystis cells with mcy-genes was low and variable in time. Neither the number of mcy-possessing cells, nor the proportion of these cells in total Microcystis, correlated with the concentration of microcystins. This suggests that it is possible to predict whether the bloom in the Masurian Lakes will be toxic based on Planktothrix occurrence. Two species of toxin producing Planktothrix, P. agardhii and P. rubescens, were identified by phylogenetic analysis of 16S-ITS. Based on morphological and ecological features, the toxic Planktothrix was identified as P. agardhii. However, the very high proportion of cells with mcy-genes suggests P. rubescens. Our study reveals the need of universal primers for mcyA genes from environment.