Objective: To evaluate the capacity of total anterior thigh thickness, quadriceps muscle thickness, and quadriceps contractile index, all measured by bedside ultrasound, to predict rehospitalization, functional decline, and death in elderly patients 3 months after hospital discharge. To evaluate intra and interobserver reproducibility of the dominant thigh evaluation method by point of care ultrasound.
Methods: Cohort study of patients aged 65 years or more admitted to a medium complexity unit in a teaching hospital in southern Brazil. Comprehensive geriatric assessment and ultrasound evaluation of the dominant thigh of each participant were performed. After 3 months of hospital discharge, telephone contact was made to evaluate the outcomes of rehospitalization or death and functional decline-assessed by the 100 points Barthel scale and defined as a decrease of five or more points.
Results: 100 participants were included. There was no statistically significant difference between intraobserver measurements in the GEE method analysis (p > 0.05), and the mean bias obtained in Bland-Altman plots was close to zero in all four analyses performed, suggesting good intra and interobserver agreement. There was a significant correlation between the echographic measurements (quadriceps thickness and contractile index) and gait speed, timed up and go, and handgrip tests. There was a significant association between contractile index (quadriceps thickness over total anterior thigh thickness multiplied by 100) lower than 60% and functional decline (relative risk 1.35; CI 95% 1.10-1.65; p = 0.003) as well as between the thickness of the quadriceps and rehospitalization or death, in both individuals with preserved walking capacity and in bedridden elders (relative risk 1.34; CI 95% 1.02-1.75; p = 0.04).
Conclusion: The ultrasonographic method to evaluate thigh thickness was easily applicable and reproducible. The thickness of the quadriceps could predict rehospitalization or death, even in those patients without walking capacity-unable to perform gait speed and timed up and go tests. Additionally, the contractile index was associated with functional decline after 3 months of hospital discharge. This is a promising result, which highlights the bedside ultrasound of the quadriceps as a potential tool for the prognosis evaluation of bedridden hospitalized elderly patients.
Keywords: comprehensive geriatric assessment; elderly; functional decline; hospitalization; point of care ultrasound.