Introduction: Aging has long been regarded as one of the most critical factors affecting crash injury outcomes. In South Korea, where the elderly population is projected to reach 35.9% by 2050, the implications of an increasing number of elderly vehicle users on road safety are evident. In this research, the confounding effect of occupant age in a vehicle in terms of seat position and seatbelt use was investigated. In addition, elderly occupants were divided into a younger-old group aged between 65 and 74 years and an older-old group aged 75 years and older in an effort to assess whether the conventional elderly age standard of 65 years should be reconsidered.
Methods: A multinomial logit framework was adopted to predict two-level injury severity using collision data between 2008 and 2015. Predictor variables included gender, age group, seat position, seatbelt, road type, road slope, road surface, road line, and type of vehicle. Five models, a base model with no interactions and four interaction models which were combinations of age group, seatbelt use and seat position, were devised and evaluated.
Results: With no interacting term, age was the most prominent predictor. Elderly occupants were most likely to suffer from severe injury without a seatbelt in all seat positions, and the use of a seatbelt reduced this likelihood the most in the elderly group as well. Front passenger seats had the highest risk to elderly occupants, while the driver seat was statistically insignificant. When the elderly group was divided into the younger-old group and the older-old group, the older-olds were found to be much more vulnerable compared to the younger-olds. In particular, older drivers were five times more likely to suffer a severe injury without a seatbelt.
Conclusions: The degree of injury severity of elderly occupants was reduced the most with the use of a seatbelt, demonstrating the importance of using seat restraints. The sharp increase in the risk of injury of the older-old group suggests that the age standard of 65 years as the elderly group with regard to traffic safety may require reconsideration due to the growing number of elderly vehicle users on the road. Our results provide practical evidence with which to formulate new safety policies, including mandatory seatbelt use, driving age limits and insurance pricing.