Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PLoS One. 2017 Jul 6;12(7):e0179498. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179498. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change
  • Colorado
  • Computer Simulation
  • Conservation of Natural Resources*
  • Ecosystem
  • Lakes / analysis*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Seasons
  • Temperature

Grants and funding

This work was funded by the United States Geological Survey, who provided JJR funding through the Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellowship Program. Colorado Parks and Wildlife also provided funding to KDF. The funder provided support in the form of salaries for authors JJR, DMW, TSS, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the 'author contributions' section.