Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol-related crime

Abstract

Introduction: Saskatchewan's introduction in April 2010 of minimum prices graded by alcohol strength led to an average minimum price increase of 9.1% per Canadian standard drink (=13.45 g ethanol). This increase was shown to be associated with reduced consumption and switching to lower alcohol content beverages. Police also informally reported marked reductions in night-time alcohol-related crime.

Objectives: This study aims to assess the impacts of changes to Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol-pricing regulations between 2008 and 2012 on selected crime events often related to alcohol use.

Methods: Data were obtained from Canada's Uniform Crime Reporting Survey. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time series models were used to test immediate and lagged associations between minimum price increases and rates of night-time and police identified alcohol-related crimes. Controls were included for simultaneous crime rates in the neighbouring province of Alberta, economic variables, linear trend, seasonality and autoregressive and/or moving-average effects.

Results: The introduction of increased minimum-alcohol prices was associated with an abrupt decrease in night-time alcohol-related traffic offences for men (-8.0%, P < 0.001), but not women. No significant immediate changes were observed for non-alcohol-related driving offences, disorderly conduct or violence. Significant monthly lagged effects were observed for violent offences (-19.7% at month 4 to -18.2% at month 6), which broadly corresponded to lagged effects in on-premise alcohol sales.

Discussion: Increased minimum alcohol prices may contribute to reductions in alcohol-related traffic-related and violent crimes perpetrated by men. Observed lagged effects for violent incidents may be due to a delay in bars passing on increased prices to their customers, perhaps because of inventory stockpiling. [Stockwell T, Zhao J, Sherk A, Callaghan RC, Macdonald S, Gatley J. Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol-related crime. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:492-501].

Keywords: ARIMA modelling; crime; minimum alcohol price; traffic offence; violence.