Egyptian broomrape (Phelipanche aegyptiaca) is one of the main threats to tomato production in Israel. The seed bank of P. aegyptiaca rapidly develops and spreads in the field. Knowledge about the spatio-temporal distribution of such weeds is required in advance of emergence, as they emerge late in their life cycle when they have already caused major crop damage. The aim of this study is to reveal the effects of two major internal infestation sources: crop rotation and infestation history; and one external source: proximity to infested tomato fields; on infestation of P. aegyptiaca in processing tomatoes. Ecoinformatics, spatial analysis and geostatistics were used to examine these effects. A regional survey was conducted to collect data on field history from 238 tomato fields between 2000 and 2012, in a major tomato-growing region in Israel. Multivariate logistic regression in the framework of generalized linear models (GLM) has demonstrated the importance of all three variables in predicting infestation in tomato fields. The parameters of the overall model indicated a high specificity between tomatoes and P. aegyptiaca, which is potentially responsible for aggravating infestation. In addition, P. aegyptiaca infestation levels were intensively mapped in 43 of the 238 tomato fields in the years 2010-2012. Geostatistical measures showed that 40% of the fields had clustered infestation spatial patterns with infestation clusters located along the fields' borders. Strong linear and negative relationships were found between infestation level and distance from a neighboring infested field, strengthening the role of infested tomato fields in P. aegyptiaca spread. An experiment specifically designed for this study showed that during harvest, P. aegyptiaca seeds are blown from an infested field to a distance of at least 90 m, and may initiate infestation in neighboring fields. Integrating current knowledge about the role of agricultural practices on the spread of P. aegyptiaca with the results of this study enabled us to propose a mechanism for the spread of P. aegyptiaca. Given the major effect of agricultural practices on infestation levels, it is assumed that the spread of this weed can be suppressed by implementing sanitation and using decision support tools for herbicide application.
Keywords: Egyptian broomrape; average nearest neighbor (ANN); geostatistics; multiscale analysis; parasitic weeds mapping.