A spatial predictive model for malaria resurgence in central Greece integrating entomological, environmental and social data

Panagiotis Pergantas; Andreas Tsatsaris; Chrisovalantis Malesios; Georgia Kriparakou; Nikolaos Demiris; Yiannis Tselentis

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0178836

A spatial predictive model for malaria resurgence in central Greece integrating entomological, environmental and social data

PLoS One. 2017 Jun 29;12(6):e0178836. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178836. eCollection 2017.

Authors

Panagiotis Pergantas¹, Andreas Tsatsaris², Chrisovalantis Malesios³, Georgia Kriparakou¹, Nikolaos Demiris⁴, Yiannis Tselentis⁵

Affiliations

¹ Bioapplications Ltd, Levadeia, Greece.
² Technological Educational Institute of Athens, Department of Department of Civil, Surveying and Geoinformatics Engineering, Athens, Greece.
³ Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Rural Development, Orestiada, Greece.
⁴ Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Statistics, Athens, Greece.
⁵ University of Crete, Regional Public Health Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.

Abstract

Malaria constitutes an important cause of human mortality. After 2009 Greece experienced a resurgence of malaria. Here, we develop a model-based framework that integrates entomological, geographical, social and environmental evidence in order to guide the mosquito control efforts and apply this framework to data from an entomological survey study conducted in Central Greece. Our results indicate that malaria transmission risk in Greece is potentially substantial. In addition, specific districts such as seaside, lakeside and rice field regions appear to represent potential malaria hotspots in Central Greece. We found that appropriate maps depicting the basic reproduction number, R0, are useful tools for informing policy makers on the risk of malaria resurgence and can serve as a guide to inform recommendations regarding control measures.

MeSH terms

Geographic Information Systems
Greece / epidemiology
Humans
Malaria / epidemiology*
Models, Theoretical*
Mosquito Vectors*
Risk Factors

Grants and funding

The entomological survey was financed by the Continental Greece Region. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Bioapplications Ltd, a commercial company, provided support in the form of salary for authors PP and GK, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the 'author contributions'.