Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

Nature. 2017 Jul 6;547(7661):49-54. doi: 10.1038/nature22996. Epub 2017 Jun 28.

Abstract

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Antarctic Regions
  • Biodiversity*
  • Climate Change / history
  • Climate Change / statistics & numerical data*
  • Conservation of Natural Resources / methods
  • Conservation of Natural Resources / statistics & numerical data
  • Conservation of Natural Resources / trends
  • Ecology / trends
  • History, 21st Century
  • Ice Cover*