Can a single model account for both risky choices and inter-temporal choices? Testing the assumptions underlying models of risky inter-temporal choice

Psychon Bull Rev. 2018 Apr;25(2):785-792. doi: 10.3758/s13423-017-1330-8.

Abstract

There is growing interest in modelling how people make choices that involve both risks and delays, i.e., risky inter-temporal choices. We investigated an untested assumption underlying several proposed risky inter-temporal choice models: that pure risky choices and pure inter-temporal choices are special cases of risky inter-temporal choice. We tested this assumption by presenting a single group of participants with risky choices and inter-temporal choices. We then compared the performance of a model that is fit to both choice types simultaneously, with the performance of separate models fit to the risky choice and inter-temporal choice data. We find, using Bayesian model comparison, that the majority of participants are best fit by a single model that incorporates both risky and inter-temporal choices. This result supports the assumption that risky choices and inter-temporal choices may be special cases of risky inter-temporal choice. Our results also suggest that, under the conditions of our experiment, interpretation of monetary value is very similar in risky choices and inter-temporal choices.

Keywords: Inter-temporal choice; Risky choice; Utility.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Choice Behavior / physiology*
  • Delay Discounting / physiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Models, Psychological*
  • Risk-Taking*
  • Young Adult