Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century

Ghouse Basha; P Kishore; M Venkat Ratnam; A Jayaraman; Amir Agha Kouchak; Taha B M J Ouarda; Isabella Velicogna

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-02130-3

Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20^th and 21^st century

Sci Rep. 2017 Jun 7;7(1):2987. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02130-3.

Authors

Ghouse Basha¹, P Kishore², M Venkat Ratnam³, A Jayaraman³, Amir Agha Kouchak⁴, Taha B M J Ouarda^{5

6}, Isabella Velicogna²

Affiliations

¹ National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, Tirupati, India. mdbasha@narl.gov.in.
² Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, 92697, USA.
³ National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, Tirupati, India.
⁴ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, California, 92697, USA.
⁵ Institute Center for Water and Environment (iWATER), Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 54224, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
⁶ INRS-ETE, National Institute of Scientific Research, Quebec City (QC), G1K9A9, Canada.

Abstract

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20^th century and projections during the 21^st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20^th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21^st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21^st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.