Understanding the dynamics of terrorism events with multiple-discipline datasets and machine learning approach

PLoS One. 2017 Jun 7;12(6):e0179057. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179057. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Terror events can cause profound consequences for the whole society. Finding out the regularity of terrorist attacks has important meaning for the global counter-terrorism strategy. In the present study, we demonstrate a novel method using relatively popular and robust machine learning methods to simulate the risk of terrorist attacks at a global scale based on multiple resources, long time series and globally distributed datasets. Historical data from 1970 to 2015 was adopted to train and evaluate machine learning models. The model performed fairly well in predicting the places where terror events might occur in 2015, with a success rate of 96.6%. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the model with optimized tuning parameter values successfully predicted 2,037 terrorism event locations where a terrorist attack had never happened before.

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Machine Learning
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Risk
  • Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic*
  • Terrorism*

Grants and funding

This research was supported and funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant NO. 41571509, http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/) and Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2016YFC1201300, http://www.most.gov.cn/eng/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.