Forecasting electric vehicles sales with univariate and multivariate time series models: The case of China

PLoS One. 2017 May 1;12(5):e0176729. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176729. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The EV sales in China, which are categorized into battery and plug-in EVs, are predicted in both short term (up to December 2017) and long term (up to 2020), as statistical proofs of the growth of the Chinese EV industry.

MeSH terms

  • Automobiles / economics*
  • China
  • Commerce / trends*
  • Electrical Equipment and Supplies / economics*
  • Electrical Equipment and Supplies / trends*
  • Forecasting*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Time Factors

Grants and funding

This work was supported financially by National Natural Science Foundation of China (71372198). http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/publish/portal1/.