The impacts of decision uncertainty on municipal solid waste management

Abstract

Municipal solid waste treatment options are not necessarily pragmatic if the stakeholders in the system don't mutually agree on their shares of liabilities. Stakeholders will select an option if their benefits are maximized and costs are minimized. A decision support framework is required to assess various waste treatment options and predict the optimal decision, considering multiple criteria and conflicting preferences of multiple stakeholders. Because of the inherent complexity, uncertainty is unavoidable and should be acknowledged to enhance the reliability in the decision-making process. Uncertainties in the cost and benefit estimates, and stakeholders' ability in verbalizing their preferences and their knowledge about each other's priorities can impact the outcome of such environmental management problem. In this study, uncertainty assessment methods such as sensitivity analysis, fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process, and Bayesian games have been explored. A case study in Vancouver (BC, Canada) has been used as a proof of concept.

Keywords: Bayesian models; Environmental management framework; Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process; Group decision-making; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty assessment.