Sampling design and required sample size for evaluating contamination levels of 137Cs in Japanese fir needles in a mixed deciduous forest stand in Fukushima, Japan

Abstract

We estimated the sample size (the number of samples) required to evaluate the concentration of radiocesium (¹³⁷Cs) in Japanese fir (Abies firma Sieb. & Zucc.), 5 years after the outbreak of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. We investigated the spatial structure of the contamination levels in this species growing in a mixed deciduous broadleaf and evergreen coniferous forest stand. We sampled 40 saplings with a tree height of 150 cm-250 cm in a Fukushima forest community. The results showed that: (1) there was no correlation between the ¹³⁷Cs concentration in needles and soil, and (2) the difference in the spatial distribution pattern of ¹³⁷Cs concentration between needles and soil suggest that the contribution of root uptake to ¹³⁷Cs in new needles of this species may be minor in the 5 years after the radionuclides were released into the atmosphere. The concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in needles showed a strong positive spatial autocorrelation in the distance class from 0 to 2.5 m, suggesting that the statistical analysis of data should consider spatial autocorrelation in the case of an assessment of the radioactive contamination of forest trees. According to our sample size analysis, a sample size of seven trees was required to determine the mean contamination level within an error in the means of no more than 10%. This required sample size may be feasible for most sites.

Keywords: Abies firma; Fukushima nuclear accident; Inter-individual variation; Moran's I; Natural forests; Spatial autocorrelation.