Social networks and inference about unknown events: A case of the match between Google's AlphaGo and Sedol Lee

PLoS One. 2017 Feb 21;12(2):e0171472. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171472. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

This study examines whether the way that a person makes inferences about unknown events is associated with his or her social relations, more precisely, those characterized by ego network density that reflects the structure of a person's immediate social relation. From the analysis of individual predictions over the Go match between AlphaGo and Sedol Lee in March 2016 in Seoul, Korea, this study shows that the low-density group scored higher than the high-density group in the accuracy of the prediction over a future state of a social event, i.e., the outcome of the first game. We corroborated this finding with three replication tests that asked the participants to predict the following: film awards, President Park's impeachment in Korea, and the counterfactual assessment of the US presidential election. Taken together, this study suggests that network density is negatively associated with vision advantage, i.e., the ability to discover and forecast an unknown aspect of a social event.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Concept Formation
  • Culture
  • Decision Making
  • Empathy
  • Female
  • Forecasting*
  • Friends
  • Games, Recreational
  • Humans
  • Internal-External Control
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Seoul
  • Social Capital
  • Social Support*
  • Young Adult

Grants and funding

All were supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (#NRF-2015R1A5A7037676), http://www.nrf.re.kr/. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.