The objective of this study is to determine the current distribution of clinical phenotypes and to estimate future trends of ALS incidence in Western societies. We report on a clinical-epidemiological registry with a capture-recapture rate of >80% and population-based case-control study in ALS patients in South Western Germany. 1163 incidents of ALS were registered. Clinical and neuropsychological data were prospectively collected from 699 cases. The mean age at onset was 66.6 (SD = 11.6) years in prospective cases (N = 699). The site of onset was more frequently bulbar (34.1%) than lumbosacral (30.7%), cervical (27.0%), or thoracic (3.1%). Cognitive deficits (ranging from 27.5 to 42.1%, depending on the screening instrument) and behavioral changes (29%) were frequently detected. The incidence rate dropped markedly after 79 years of age, and bulbar onset as well as cognitive impairment were more frequent in ALS cases >75 years. The mean survival time of ALS cases from first paresis was 31 months. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of ALS in 2012/2013 was found to be 2.4 (95% CI 2.2-2.7) per 100,000 person-years (resulting in an ASR of 3.1/100,000 with 100% coverage). Based on the predicted age distribution of the German population, the incidence of ALS was estimated to be 4.5/100,000 for men and 3.3/100,000 for women in the year 2050. ALS prevalence will rise to about 9.2-9.8/100,000 person-years in Germany in 2050. An increased proportion of patients with bulbar onset and/or cognitive deficits can be used as basic epidemiologic data on ALS for future health care decisions.
Keywords: Aging; Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; Cognitive impairment; Registry.