A fundamental assumption in the use and interpretation of microbial subtyping results for public health investigations is that isolates that appear to be related based on molecular subtyping data are expected to share commonalities with respect to their origin, history, and distribution. Critically, there is currently no approach for systematically assessing the underlying epidemiology of subtyping results. Our aim was to develop a method for directly quantifying the similarity between bacterial isolates using basic sampling metadata and to develop a framework for computing the epidemiological concordance of microbial typing results. We have developed an analytical model that summarizes the similarity of bacterial isolates using basic parameters typically provided in sampling records, using a novel framework (EpiQuant) developed in the R environment for statistical computing. We have applied the EpiQuant framework to a data set comprising 654 isolates of the enteric pathogen Campylobacter jejuni from Canadian surveillance data in order to examine the epidemiological concordance of clusters obtained by using two leading C. jejuni subtyping methods. The EpiQuant framework can be used to directly quantify the similarity of bacterial isolates based on basic sample metadata. These results can then be used to assess the concordance between microbial epidemiological and molecular data, facilitating the objective assessment of subtyping method performance and paving the way for the improved application of molecular subtyping data in investigations of infectious disease.
Keywords: Campylobacter jejuni; ecological epidemiology; epidemiological concordance; molecular epidemiology; molecular subtyping; sampling metadata; whole-genome sequencing.
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