Analysis of a vector-bias effect in the spread of malaria between two different incidence areas

Abstract

In 2005, Lacroix et al. demonstrated that infected humans are more attractive to mosquitoes, a phenomenon known as the vector-bias effect. The aim of this study was to determine how a vector-bias effect affects the changes in the dynamics of malaria transmission, and the changes in control strategies and cost-effectiveness for optimal control considering the regional characteristics or force of infections for different transmission rates. We used a vector-bias mathematical model and considered two different incidence areas: a high transmission area and a low transmission area. Our results showed that the dynamics in the two areas differed; as bias exists and the strategy for optimal control could be changed in the different areas. Thus, this work may give that considering the vector-bias effect in different areas facilitates prediction of the future dynamics and make decisions for establishing controls. We also mention the evolution of malaria parasites in this study.

Keywords: A vector-bias effect; Cost-effectiveness analysis; Endemic-size; High transmission; Low transmission; Malaria transmission dynamics; Optimal control; Sensitivity analysis.