Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks

PLoS One. 2017 Jan 9;12(1):e0166806. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166806. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Dengue is one of the major hurdles to the public health in Sri Lanka, causing high morbidity and mortality. The present study focuses on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) to map and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2014 and to elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. Epidemiological, population and meteorological data were collected from the Epidemiology Unit, Department of Census and Statistics and the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Version 20, 2011) and R studio (2012) and the maps were generated using Arc GIS 10.2. The dengue incidence showed a significant positive correlation with rainfall (p<0.0001). No positive correlation was observed between dengue incidence and temperature (p = 0.107) or humidity (p = 0.084). Rainfall prior to 2 and 5 months and a rise in the temperature prior to 9 months positively correlated with dengue incidence as based on the auto-correlation values. A rise in humidity prior to 1 month had a mild positive correlation with dengue incidence. However, a rise in humidity prior to 9 months had a significant negative correlation with dengue incidence based on the auto-correlation values. Remote sensing and GIS technologies give near real time utility of climatic data together with the past dengue incidence for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. In that regard, GIS will be applicable in outbreak predictions including prompt identification of locations with dengue incidence and forecasting future risks and thus direct control measures to minimize major outbreaks.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Climate*
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Dengue / prevention & control
  • Dengue / transmission
  • Dengue / virology
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Environment
  • Geographic Information Systems
  • Geography, Medical
  • Humans
  • Humidity
  • Incidence
  • Population Density*
  • Population Surveillance*
  • Risk Factors
  • Seasons
  • Sri Lanka / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This work was funded by the National Research Council of Sri Lanka—Grant No: 11-129. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.