An enhanced export coefficient based optimization model for supporting agricultural nonpoint source pollution mitigation under uncertainty

Qiangqiang Rong; Yanpeng Cai; Bing Chen; Wencong Yue; Xin'an Yin; Qian Tan

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.099

An enhanced export coefficient based optimization model for supporting agricultural nonpoint source pollution mitigation under uncertainty

Sci Total Environ. 2017 Feb 15:580:1351-1362. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.099. Epub 2016 Dec 23.

Authors

Qiangqiang Rong¹, Yanpeng Cai², Bing Chen³, Wencong Yue¹, Xin'an Yin¹, Qian Tan⁴

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Beijing Engineering Research Center for Watershed Environmental Restoration & Integrated Ecological Regulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, 120, 2 Research Drive, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 7H9, Canada. Electronic address: yanpeng.cai@bnu.edu.cn.
³ Northern Region Persistent Organic Pollution Control (NRPOP) Laboratory, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1B 3X5, Canada.
⁴ College of Water Resources & Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China.

PMID: 28017417
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.099

Abstract

In this research, an export coefficient based dual inexact two-stage stochastic credibility constrained programming (ECDITSCCP) model was developed through integrating an improved export coefficient model (ECM), interval linear programming (ILP), fuzzy credibility constrained programming (FCCP) and a fuzzy expected value equation within a general two stage programming (TSP) framework. The proposed ECDITSCCP model can effectively address multiple uncertainties expressed as random variables, fuzzy numbers, pure and dual intervals. Also, the model can provide a direct linkage between pre-regulated management policies and the associated economic implications. Moreover, the solutions under multiple credibility levels can be obtained for providing potential decision alternatives for decision makers. The proposed model was then applied to identify optimal land use structures for agricultural NPS pollution mitigation in a representative upstream subcatchment of the Miyun Reservoir watershed in north China. Optimal solutions of the model were successfully obtained, indicating desired land use patterns and nutrient discharge schemes to get a maximum agricultural system benefits under a limited discharge permit. Also, numerous results under multiple credibility levels could provide policy makers with several options, which could help get an appropriate balance between system benefits and pollution mitigation. The developed ECDITSCCP model can be effectively applied to addressing the uncertain information in agricultural systems and shows great applicability to the land use adjustment for agricultural NPS pollution mitigation.

Keywords: Agricultural nonpoint source pollution; Export coefficient model; Land use adjustment; Optimization; Uncertainty.