Ambient noise variability in tropical shallow water presents a critical challenge for sonar designers and operators due to site-specific sea surface fluctuations. Sea surface temperature (SST) is a direct measure of energy balance defining the local climate of the region and hence ambient noise characteristics. In this work, an ambient noise probability density function (pdf) model for a spectral band of 3-10 kHz has been designed based on the statistical distribution of SST and validated using real field data. This will enable early ambient noise prediction compared to existing wind speed based models to facilitate structured mitigation strategies for improving sonar performance.