Does drought in China show a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2009?

Zhaoli Wang; Jun Li; Chengguang Lai; Zhaoyang Zeng; Ruida Zhong; Xiaohong Chen; Xiaowen Zhou; Mingyuan Wang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.098

Does drought in China show a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2009?

Sci Total Environ. 2017 Feb 1:579:314-324. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.098. Epub 2016 Nov 25.

Authors

Zhaoli Wang¹, Jun Li², Chengguang Lai³, Zhaoyang Zeng², Ruida Zhong², Xiaohong Chen⁴, Xiaowen Zhou², Mingyuan Wang⁵

Affiliations

¹ School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China; POWERCHINA Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 310014, China.
² School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China.
³ School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China; Center for Water Resource and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China. Electronic address: laichg@scut.edu.cn.
⁴ Center for Water Resource and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China, Guangzhou 510275, China.
⁵ POWERCHINA Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 310014, China.

PMID: 27894798
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.098

Abstract

In recent decades, the occurrence and severity of drought in China has had devastating impact on social and economic development. The increase in drought has been attributed to global warming. We used the high-accuracy self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in China between 1961 and 2009 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. We also analyzed the relationship between the rotated principal component time series (RPCs) and 74 circulation indices. The results revealed that: 1) all of China experienced a significant wet trend at annual and seasonal scale; an abrupt change in the drought pattern occurred around 1970 with a 2-8-year significant period; 2) eight major sub-climate regions were identified: Northwest China, Northeast-Inner Mongolia Plateau, Greater Khingan Range area, Northern Tibetan Plateau, Southern Tibetan Plateau, Central China, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Southeast China. Of these regions, the Southern Tibetan Plateau experienced a significant wet trend, but the Northeast-Inner Mongolia Plateau and Northern Tibetan Plateau became significantly drier. Using either annual or seasonal scales, Northwest China became significantly wetter and Central China became more arid. In addition, the period of each sub-climate region shared a significant 2-8-year band; 3) the polar vortex exhibited dominant patterns that affected most areas of China. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation had a significant influence on drought evolution, especially for Northwest China and the Huang-Huai-Hai plain. Additionally, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation also affected drought evolution, and the Central China was impacted by the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Keywords: China; Drought; Spatiotemporal characteristic; Sub-climate region; scPDSI_PM.