Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

PLoS One. 2016 Oct 17;11(10):e0163941. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163941. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country.

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture
  • Climate Change*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Philippines
  • Rivers
  • Seasons
  • Water Movements
  • Water Supply

Grants and funding

The work was part of the Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change (AMICAF) under the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The overall project was funded by the Japanese Government (project symbol at FAO is GCP/INT/126/JPN). AP received support in the form of salary from Water Insights. The funders did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.