Diversity in lifestyles and socioeconomic status among European populations, and recent socio-political and economic changes in transitional countries, may affect changes in adiposity. We aimed to determine whether change in the prevalence of obesity varies between the socio-politically transitional North-East European (Łódź, Poland; Szeged, Hungary; Tartu, Estonia), and the non-transitional Mediterranean (Santiago de Compostela, Spain; Florence, Italy) and North-West European (Leuven, Belgium; Malmö, Sweden; Manchester, UK) cities. This prospective observational cohort survey was performed between 2003 and 2005 at baseline and followed up between 2008 and 2010 of 3369 community-dwelling men aged 40-79 years. Main outcome measures in the present paper included waist circumference, body mass index and mid-upper arm muscle area. Baseline prevalence of waist circumference ≥ 102 cm and body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2, respectively, were 39.0, 29.5 % in North-East European cities, 32.4, 21.9 % in Mediterranean cities, and 30.0, 20.1 % in North-West European cities. After median 4.3 years, men living in cities from transitional countries had mean gains in waist circumference (1.1 cm) and body mass index (0.2 kg/m2), which were greater than men in cities from non-transitional countries (P = 0.005). North-East European cities had greater gains in waist circumference (1.5 cm) than in Mediterranean cities (P < 0.001). Over 4.3 years, the prevalence of waist circumference ≥ 102 cm had increased by 13.1 % in North-East European cities, 5.8 % in the Mediterranean cities, 10.0 % in North-West European cities. Odds ratios (95 % confidence intervals), adjusted for lifestyle factors, for developing waist circumference ≥ 102 cm, compared with men from Mediterranean cities, were 2.3 (1.5-3.5) in North-East European cities and 1.6 (1.1-2.4) in North-West European cities, and 1.6 (1.2-2.1) in men living in cities from transitional, compared with cities from non-transitional countries. These regional differences in increased prevalence of waist circumference ≥ 102 cm were more pronounced in men aged 60-79 years than in those aged 40-59 years. Overall there was an increase in the prevalence of obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2) over 4.3 years (between 5.3 and 6.1 %) with no significant regional differences at any age. Mid-upper arm muscle area declined during follow-up with the greatest decline among men from North-East European cities. In conclusion, increasing waist circumference is dissociated from change in body mass index and most rapid among men living in cities from transitional North-East European countries, presumably driven by economic and socio-political changes. Information on women would also be of value and it would be of interest to relate the changes in adiposity to dietary and other behavioural habits.
Keywords: Body mass index; Environment; Fat distribution; Health promotion; Obesity; Waist circumference.