Distress Propagation in Complex Networks: The Case of Non-Linear DebtRank

PLoS One. 2016 Oct 4;11(10):e0163825. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163825. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of the DebtRank algorithm, recently introduced in the literature. The mechanics of distress propagation is very simple: When a bank suffers a loss, distress propagates to its creditors, who in turn suffer losses, and so on. The original DebtRank assumes that losses are propagated linearly between connected banks. Here we relax this assumption and introduce a one-parameter family of non-linear propagation functions. As a case study, we apply this algorithm to a data-set of 183 European banks, and we study how the stability of the system depends on the non-linearity parameter under different stress-test scenarios. We find that the system is characterized by a transition between a regime where small shocks can be amplified and a regime where shocks do not propagate, and that the overall stability of the system increases between 2008 and 2013.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Banking, Personal*
  • Financial Management
  • Models, Economic*
  • Neural Networks, Computer

Grants and funding

MB, JIP, GV, and GC acknowledge support from FP7-ICT project MULTIPLEX nr. 317532, FP7-ICT project SIMPOL nr. 610704, and Horizon 2020 project DOLFINS nr. 640772. FC acknowledges support of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) in funding the Systemic Risk Centre (ES/K002309/1). GC acknowledges additional support from Horizon 2020 projects SoBIGData nr. 654024 and CoEGSS nr. 676547. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.